The results are from Gallup’s Oct. 28-31 survey of 1,539 likely voters. It finds 52% to 55% of likely voters preferring the Republican candidate and 40% to 42% for the Democratic candidate on the national generic ballot — depending on turnout assumptions. Gallup’s analysis of several indicators of voter turnout from the weekend poll suggests turnout will be slightly higher than in recent years, at 45%. This would give the Republicans a 55% to 40% lead on the generic ballot, with 5% undecided.
…[T]his year’s 15-point gap in favor of the Republican candidates among likely voters is unprecedented in Gallup polling and could result in the largest Republican margin in House voting in several generations. This means that seat projections have moved into uncharted territory, in which past relationships between the national two-party vote and the number of seats won may not be maintained.
It looks like we’re definitely not in Kansas anymore.
Saw this as it happened live.
Jim Hoft at GWP has video of Presidents George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush throw out the first pitch:
People genuinely love these men. What a great moment.
PPP is out with their last poll for Kentucky:
Rand Paul has expanded his lead in the Kentucky Senate race even further over the last week and is headed for a blowout win. His margin over Jack Conway is 55-40.
Kentucky is obviously a conservative state. Conway’s ability to win was always going to depend on getting a lot of folks who supported John McCain in 2008 to vote Democratic for the Senate this time around. The most amazing finding on this final poll is that Rand Paul is actually picking up more Obama voters (15%) than Conway is McCain voters (9%). That’s the formula for a landslide.
It doesn’t hurt to have an opponent run tasteless and desperation-tainted ads, either.
Stories like this are great news for Republicans 48 hours before the election. Not only are Republicans here in New Jersey more energized to vote, but we’re building a nice grassroots organization:
The GOP has added 18,241 voters to the rolls since the June primary, a 1.7 percent increase, according to figures at the state Division of Elections. The number of Democratic voters has increased by 3,199.
The Democrats still hold a 3-to-2 margin over the Republicans. There are 1.7 million registered Democratic voters, compared with 1.1 million Republicans.
But the state’s 2.4 million unaffiliated voters still dwarf both major parties and usually prove to be the deciding factor in any major election.
Brigid Harrison, a political science professor at Montclair State University, said the GOP statewide and nationwide has the upper hand in an enthusiasm gap between the two major parties.
“Republicans are much more excited about their chances,” Harrison said. “They have the momentum their volunteers are organized and energized.”
Harrison said that Republicans learned much from Gov. Chris Christie’s successful get-out-the-vote effort from last year’s gubernatorial election. Then, the Republicans used social networking efforts on the Internet and used volunteers in suburban neighborhoods to boost totals in GOP strongholds such as Monmouth and Ocean counties.
“Part of this (voter) surge is due to the fact that there is a much more sophisticated Republican organization on the ground in this state,” Harrison said.
These developments should be huge for Anna Little in the 6th congressional district and Jon Runyan in the 3rd:
[Joseph Marbach, provost at LaSalle University] said one indicator of the how things have changed is the relatively close race between Republican challenger Anna Little and Democratic U.S. Rep. Frank Pallone Jr. Pallone is well financed and has been a congressman for more than 20 years, while Little served less than two years as a county freeholder and is now Highlands mayor.
Pallone is up by 7 points, the latest polls show. “Little (winning) would be a real upset, and it already is with it as close as it is,” Marbach said.
Another indicator of the Republican surge is in New Jersey’s 3rd District, where U.S. Rep. John Adler is running neck-and-neck with Republican challenger Jon Runyon, the former Philadelphia Eagles lineman, Marbach said.
Donate your time, money and/or energy to help put Anna Little and Jon Runyan over the top in their districts. There’s still some time.
The big news this week was that Bill Clinton had tried to get the Democrat candidate Kendrick Meek to drop out of the Florida race for US Senate. The idea being that Republican Independent Charlie Crist can save the seat for Democrats.
There’s so much fail there for Democrats (see the Joe Sestak debacle in Pennsylvania), and as Ed Henry reports, there’s more to the Meek story than just that one race:
The real story is how bad the broader electoral map has gotten for Democrats heading into the final weekend of this midterm election: Top Democratic officials privately say they believe they are going to lose the House, but as they survey the country they are getting increasingly worried they will also lose the Senate.
These Democratic officials tell me they’ve reviewed private polling numbers that suggest Sen. Patty Murray of Washington has a razor-thin lead of about two points over Republican Dino Rossi despite all kinds of help from the president and first lady Michelle Obama, among others.
They’re also deeply worried about whether Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada can beat Republican Sharron Angle, so suddenly the “firewall” out West to keep control of the Senate might be more like a crumbling brick wall.
In fact, I asked top Democratic officials if it’s really worth it to try to push Meek out, even though the whole plan has now been exposed and it appears the congressman will not budge. The consensus was yes, it’s worth it simply because holding on to the Senate is the Democrat’s sole chance of keeping some power on Capitol Hill.
If Democrats are worried about Washington state (!) and Patty Murray, what are they thinking about Ohio? Pennsylvania? Colorado?
Democrats are publicly saying that they are confident of minimizing losses heading into November 2nd. If that’s the case, they’re certainly not acting like it.
The Senate race in Alaska is turning out to be a major clusterfark for the GOP:
In a last-ditch effort to aid their Senate nominee Scott McAdams, Democrats purchased airtime Friday in Alaska.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee purchased $165,000 worth of ads that will start airing this weekend, according to Andrew MacLeod, the general sales manager at Anchorage television station KTUU.
The DSCC’s eleventh-hour independent expenditure suggests the committee believes McAdams has a chance to defeat Republican Joe Miller and Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who is running a write-in campaign to retain her seat. McAdams was widely viewed as a long-shot candidate when he filed to challenge Murkowski earlier this year, but the unique dynamics of what became a three-way race have given the Democrat an opening — although it’s unclear yet from recent polling how much of a shot McAdams truly has.
Two polls released this week show the initial front-runner in the general election, Miller, losing ground.
A month ago, I didn’t think anyone in the Republican party could possibly beat Mike Castle as wanker of the year. Lisa Murkowski has done that, and then some.
UPDATE. And just to prove my point even further, Dan Riehl has this bit of Murkowski insanity.
This (PDF) probably explains why President Obama and Vice-President Doofus have been popping up in Delaware over the last few weeks, despite Democrats’ assumptions that the open Senate seat was a slam-dunk:
In the past two weeks, Republican Christine O’Donnell has narrowed Democrat Chris Coons’ lead in Delaware’s U.S. Senate race from 19 points to 10 points. The latest Monmouth University Poll finds Coons has the support of 51% of likely voters to 41% for O’Donnell. Two weeks ago, this race stood at 57% to 38%.
O’Donnell has actually pulled into a 49% to 43% lead in the southern part of the state (i.e. Kent and Sussex counties). Two weeks ago, this region of the state was divided at 47% for O’Donnell and 46% for Coons. The Democrat continues to hold a sizable advantage in New Castle County, but the current 56% to 36% margin is down from the 63% to 33% edge he held earlier this month.
O’Donnell has also made gains among independent voters, now leading Coons 47% to 42% among this voting bloc. Two weeks ago, she trailed in the independent vote by 51% to 41%. “While Coons still has the advantage, it has to be uncomfortable knowing that O’Donnell was able to shave 9 points off his lead in just two weeks.
The interesting thing is that while her vote total has risen, the majority of Delaware voters still say she is unqualified for the post,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.
The swing in independent voters is huge, as this reflects similar movements throughout the country in races that are going from blue to red.
If you look at the cross-tabs, respondents gave a 49% disapproval rating to President Obama; independents gave him a 56% disapproval rating.
The Obama administration isn’t taking this race lightly:
“If you keep Connecticut and Delaware, it makes it very hard for the Republicans to get there,” one senior administration official said. “It is really an effort to leave no stone unturned.”
Although Delaware appears well in hand for Democratic nominee Chris Coons, he will get a further boost Saturday when Obama visits Philadelphia, where media coverage extends to nearby Delaware.
RCP still gives a 15 point edge to Coons, and time is running out for O’Donnell, so the GOTV efforts need to be massive.
But there’s something going on in Delaware and it’s making Democrats very uneasy. Pulling this off would be huge for Republicans in an already big year, all while the Left continues with an unrelenting barrage of vitriol and smears against Republican women.
Knocking a Democrat off from Joe Biden’s old seat would be icing on the cake.
Who would have thought that a radical and bitterly partisan the pragmatic President Obama would allow this to happen in his administration:
The Justice Department has tried to hide the involvement of high-level political officials in the dismissal of a controversial voter-intimidation lawsuit against members of the New Black Panther Party, a federal commission concluded in a draft report.
The U.S. Commission on Civil Rights said the department’s reversal in the case, which drew criticism from conservatives, indicates that its Civil Rights Division is failing to protect white voters and is “at war with its core mission of guaranteeing equal protection of the laws for all Americans.”
The Justice Department strongly denied the allegations in the report based on the commission’s year-long investigation into the Obama administration’s handling of the 2008 case. The Bush administration had filed a voter-intimidation lawsuit against members of the New Black Panther Party in Philadelphia who were videotaped outside a polling place, one carrying a nightstick. The Obama Justice Department dismissed most of the case.
The lawsuit brought on by the Bush Administration came after incidents of voter intimidation in November 2008. Here’s a refresher from a Philadelphia polling place:
There you have it–blatant voter intimidation, complete with paramilitary uniforms and nightsticks, and allegations of cover-ups at the highest levels of the Federal government.
I’m desperately awaiting how the watchful eyes of our national media cover this story, if at all. Are the idiots on the left who whined about the alleged politicization of the branches of government during the Bush administration start bitching about this too? Doubt it.
Gallup breaks down their latest report on likely voters in Tuesday’s election and it’s not looking good for Democrats:
Gallup’s latest figures on the composition of the 2010 electorate suggest that, consistent with an earlier Gallup report, those voting in this year’s congressional elections across the country will be similar in gender, age, and education to 2006 voters. At the same time, they will be substantially more Republican in their party orientation, and more conservative than has been the case in the past several midterms.
The current and historical likely voter data reviewed here assume an approximately 40% turnout rate among national adults for each election, close to the typical turnout rate recorded in recent midterm years. (Gallup has also calculated the 2010 congressional vote using an assumption of higher turnout.)
Specifically, 55% of likely voters in Gallup’s Oct. 14-24, 2010, polling are Republicans and independents who lean Republican. This is higher than the Republican showing in the past four midterm elections, although not too dissimilar to the 51% found in 2002. The corollary of this is that the 40% of likely voters now identifying as Democratic is the lowest such percentage of the past several midterms.
Notably, this year’s high Republican representation among likely voters stems mainly from a substantial increase in Republican-leaning independents in the likely voter pool — now at 16% — reflecting the broader shift toward the Republican Party among independents evident since 2009.
With respect to political ideology, the 48% of likely voters now describing their political views as conservative is slightly greater than the 42% to 45% seen in each of the prior three midterms. However, the percentage of likely voters identifying as liberal has also generally increased over this period. Both changes are consistent with broader patterns Gallup has identified in the past year.
Meanwhile, the Hope And Change coalition, the mindless robots who pulled the lever for Barack Obama based on nothing but words and fake Greek columns, is–surprise!–falling apart:
Critical parts of the coalition that delivered President Obama to the White House in 2008 and gave Democrats control of Congress in 2006 are switching their allegiance to the Republicans in the final phase of the midterm Congressional elections, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.
Republicans have wiped out the advantage held by Democrats in recent election cycles among women, Roman Catholics, less affluent Americans and independents. All of those groups broke for Mr. Obama in 2008 and for Congressional Democrats when they grabbed both chambers from the Republicans four years ago, according to exit polls.
If women choose Republicans over Democrats in House races on Tuesday, it will be the first time they have done so since exit polls began tracking the breakdown in 1982.
The poll provides a pre-Election Day glimpse of a nation so politically disquieted and disappointed in its current trajectory that 57 percent of the registered voters surveyed said they were more willing to take a chance this year on a candidate with little previous political experience. More than a quarter of them said they were even willing to back a candidate who holds some views that “seem extreme.”
On the issue most driving the campaign, the economy, Republicans have erased the traditional advantage held by Democrats as the party seen as better able to create jobs; the parties are now even on that measure. By a wide margin, Republicans continue to be seen as the party better able to reduce the federal budget deficit.
Talk about a new era in American politics. President Obama and his partners on the fringe of the Democratic party have taken their party majorities and flushed them down the toilet of partisan, left-wing utopian fantasies, in a space of less than two years.
What these polls suggest is that the American people were sold a bill of goods with empty Democrat promises of bigger and better government, of expanding the power of the government for the greater good. They’re now seeing the disastrous fruit of those promises and are acting accordingly.
Maybe a bit too presumptuous, but good for John Boehner:
Republicans aren’t in the mood for compromise, especially on repealing healthcare reform, House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) said Wednesday.
Boehner, the party leader who would likely become Speaker in a GOP-controlled House, distanced himself from a senior senator’s suggestion last week that trying to repeal the new healthcare reform law wasn’t in Republicans’ best interest.
“This is not a time for compromise, and I can tell you that we will not compromise on our principles,” Boehner said during an appearance on conservative Sean Hannity’s radio show.
The political gods are fickle, and they have decided to give Boehner and the Republicans the mother of all second chances. If indeed, the GOP wins control of the House, let’s hope that Boehner stays true to his word.