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Posts Tagged ‘Anna Little’

Election Day Eve in NJ-6

November 1, 2010 1 comment

It’s still an uphill battle for Anna Little, going up against 11 term congressman Frank Pallone, but the race has received some increased media attention over the past few weeks, and polls are showing a tightening race.

Republicans are headed for a huge victory tomorrow with gains all over the map. That makes seemingly impossible races like NJ-6 within reach.  At a rally a few weeks ago, Governor Christie said that it would be a shame if we wake up on November 3rd to see candidates like Anna Little miss out by a few points, just because voters felt as if they had no choice or no chance.

This past Saturday, I was at a Halloween/birthday party and I was talking with a fellow district resident.  We started talking politics and she asked what I knew about Anna Little, and she had only heard about her over the past few weeks.   When our conversation was over, I asked her to relay my words of wisdom to others who had decided to sit the election out.   Who knows what will come of that, but the point is every little bit will help.

Anna Little will be appearing with Governor Christie tonight for a last GOTV rally in Middletown NJ at Bachstadt’s Tavern, 8 Bray Avenue, from 7-9 PM.  Make it out there if you can, bring people who might be interested or see what you can do to help in the last few hours before election day.

If you think we’ve done enough, think again.  There’s always more to be done.

Anna Little For Congress

GOP registration soaring in New Jersey

October 31, 2010 Leave a comment

Stories like this are great news for Republicans 48 hours before the election.  Not only are Republicans here in New Jersey more energized to vote, but we’re building a nice grassroots organization:

The GOP has added 18,241 voters to the rolls since the June primary, a 1.7 percent increase, according to figures at the state Division of Elections. The number of Democratic voters has increased by 3,199.

The Democrats still hold a 3-to-2 margin over the Republicans. There are 1.7 million registered Democratic voters, compared with 1.1 million Republicans.

But the state’s 2.4 million unaffiliated voters still dwarf both major parties and usually prove to be the deciding factor in any major election.

Brigid Harrison, a political science professor at Montclair State University, said the GOP statewide and nationwide has the upper hand in an enthusiasm gap between the two major parties.

“Republicans are much more excited about their chances,” Harrison said. “They have the momentum their volunteers are organized and energized.”

Harrison said that Republicans learned much from Gov. Chris Christie’s successful get-out-the-vote effort from last year’s gubernatorial election. Then, the Republicans used social networking efforts on the Internet and used volunteers in suburban neighborhoods to boost totals in GOP strongholds such as Monmouth and Ocean counties.

“Part of this (voter) surge is due to the fact that there is a much more sophisticated Republican organization on the ground in this state,” Harrison said.

These developments should be huge for Anna Little in the 6th congressional district and Jon Runyan in the 3rd:

[Joseph Marbach, provost at LaSalle University] said one indicator of the how things have changed is the relatively close race between Republican challenger Anna Little and Democratic U.S. Rep. Frank Pallone Jr. Pallone is well financed and has been a congressman for more than 20 years, while Little served less than two years as a county freeholder and is now Highlands mayor.

Pallone is up by 7 points, the latest polls show. “Little (winning) would be a real upset, and it already is with it as close as it is,” Marbach said.

Another indicator of the Republican surge is in New Jersey’s 3rd District, where U.S. Rep. John Adler is running neck-and-neck with Republican challenger Jon Runyon, the former Philadelphia Eagles lineman, Marbach said.

Donate your time, money and/or energy to help put Anna Little and Jon Runyan over the top in their districts.  There’s still some time.

Anna Little for Congress

Jon Runyan for Congress

NJ-6: Monmouth University poll shows Pallone losing ground to Little

October 26, 2010 Leave a comment

Several weeks ago, RCP moved this race from Safe Dem to Lean Dem. 

Earlier today, Jim Geraghty wrote that Charlie Cook has now moved New Jersey’s 6th CD to Likely Dem as well.

Today, the Asbury Park Press and the Star Ledger are both reporting that the latest Monmouth University poll shows Anna Little gaining ground, narrowing Frank Pallone’s lead from twelve to seven points.  The APP writes:

In the Monmouth County portion of the district, Little leads Pallone 52 to 45 percent. Three weeks ago, Pallone led Little by 49 to 47 percent. Pallone continues to hold a sizable 58 to 37 percent lead in the other parts of the district, including urban strongholds in Middlesex and Union counties.

 Pallone’s job performance approval rating among likely voters is 45 percent, virtually the same as three weeks ago, when it was 46 percent. His job performance disapproval rating has gone up from 36 to 46 percent, however.

 More voters are now aware of Little: only 31 percent said they have no opinion of her, down from 45 percent three weeks ago.

Last week I wrote:

[…] worth noting is that 45% of respondents said they had “no opinion” of Anna Little.  In other words, voters in the district really don’t know much about her.  Voters here feel they don’t really have much of a choice, that it’s just automatic for Pallone to win.  That’s not good for democracy.  […]

Turnout will be key to turn this district red, plain and simple.  With a 12 point deficit and two weeks left, the campaign will certainly have its work cut out for it.  It will be difficult, but not impossible. 

This is what happens when voters begin to realize that they have a choice, and they have the power to break the vise grip of lethargic incumbency.  This is what GOTV efforts are all about.  In a matter of weeks, support at the grassroots level in the Little campaign has taken a virtually unknown candidate to within striking distance of a 22-year incumbent Democrat, comfortable in his blue district.

Speaking as a Mets fan, all I can say is: you gotta believe!

UPDATE.  It appears that the sample used in the Monmouth University poll might be skewing what’s really going on in NJ-6:

The poll […] could underestimate Little’s performance. The Monmouth University poll’s sample was 40 percent Democrats, 22 percent Republicans and 38 percent Independents. […]

In 2006 the Republican sample was 28 percent (a depressed year for Republicans nation wide, but especially dower in the North East) and the independent Sample was 31 percent. In 2008 the Republican sample was 33 percent and the independent sample was 38 percent.

It is fairly dubious assertion that this year will yield fewer Republicans at the polls than even 2006. It is even more suspicious that 38 percent of the Monmouth University poll’s sample is 38 percent; this independent sample outperforms their best year by 7 points. For a particularly good Republican year, when both the GOP and Democratic bases were engaged, 2004 is a decent place to start.
 
If you adjust the sample of 647 likely voters (257 Democrats, 141 Republican and 249 Independents) to reflect the exit polls from 2004, (253 Democrats, 201 Republicans and 194 Independents) then the race becomes 51 to 49 percent for Pallone. This is a minor adjustment from Monmouth University’s findings for Pallone but a major boost for Little. It also puts this race within the margin of error for most pollsters.
 
Stay tuned…

 

NJ-6: Anna Little closing in on Pallone?

October 19, 2010 1 comment

Take it for what it’s worth, but a National Research poll is giving Anna Little’s campaign some juice:

Gov. Chris Christie campaigned with Tea Party-endorsed 6th District challenger Anna Little last night in Piscataway and intends to campaign again with her later this week. Christie has some inside intel on the race from his favorite pollster.

Republican numbers cruncher Adam Geller of National Research, Inc. shows Republican challenger Little with a shot to win in her challenge of a vulnerable U.S. Rep. Frank Pallone (D-Long Branch).

Commissioned by the Little campaign, Geller puts Pallone ahead of Little by one point, 44-43%, in a survey Geller conducted from Oct. 5-6.

I’m too ignorant to figure out how much weight to give that poll.  I mean really, Frank Pallone.  Up by only 1 point? 

Jim Geraghty cautions:

This is a D+8 district, and Pallone usually wins by wide margins — with 67 percent in 2008, 69 percent in 2006, 67 percent in 2004, 66 percent in 2002. One of the reasons I had never put this race terribly high on my list of competitive contests is Pallone’s gargantuan financial advantage. As of September 30, he has more than $4.2 million cash on hand (a side effect of his interest in running statewide for a long while) while Little’s financial resources align with her surname, a little over $109,000 cash on hand as of October 13.

A poll like this one, commissioned by Little, might get Pallone to dip into his considerable cash reserves to ensure his traditional advantage. (After Christie carried his district, Pallone would be a fool to take his reelection for granted.) But if Pallone really is at 35 percent in his job-approval rating, as the Little poll suggests, then perhaps all the money in the world can’t persuade his constituents to keep him.

I stick by my initial take on this race–it will be tough, but not impossible.  If Little could pull this off, it would be a coup of ginormous proportions. 

(H/T: Ace)

NJ-6: Governor Christie speech for Anna Little (VIDEO)

October 18, 2010 Leave a comment

Chris Christie’s speech at yesterday’s campaign rally for the Little campaign are available on YouTube in two separate videos.

Here’s the first part, which includes the portion from the clip that I posted yesterday:

Part two is important as the Governor implores the grassroots to remain active and most importantly, to get out and vote:

My original post on the rally is here.

Anna Little for Congress

NJ-6: Governor Christie stumps for Anna Little

October 17, 2010 6 comments

The Governor made an appearance at Anna Little’s campaign rally in Piscataway earlier today, before her debate with entrenched liberal incumbent, the 22-year congressman, Frank “I helped write Obamacare” Pallone. 

Christie came out to introduce Little to the crowd and gave a classic Christie speech in support of the candidate.  I caught some of his speech on my iPhone:

Say what you want about Christie, and as I’ve noted on this blog before, I wasn’t a fan before the 2009 election.  But seeing what he’s done in less than a year, makes you proud to be conservative from New Jersey.  It’s a relief to hear a Republican not apologize for being conservative.

Once Christie entered the hall, the place went nuts.  I took some photos:

 Tea Party-approved:

Look at that glare:

Here is the Governor telling us all to just STFU and vote on November 2nd:

Another shot:

The place was SRO, but I got there early and got a good spot before the place filled up.  Notice the racist “Don’t Tread On Me” flag.  This is New Jersey for pete’s sake, it’s happening all over:

More “afraid and confused” racists voters at the rally:

This sign got the Governor’s attention and pointed it out to the crowd:

Here’s my take on this race.   New Jersey’s 6th District is historically a deep blue Democrat distrcit running northwest from Asbury Park in Monmouth County on the coast, into parts of Middlesex County, and President Obama won the district easily by a margin of 61-39.  Pallone has been representing the district since George H. W. Bush was first elected President, a full eleven terms. 

The latest polling has Pallone winning by 12 points and RCP recently moved the district from Safe Dem to Likely Dem.   The problem for Pallone is that 12 points is less than half of the 30+ point advantage he usually gets at reelection:

“A 12 point lead may look comfortable, but not when you consider the fact that Pallone regularly wins reelection by more than 30 points,” Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said. “District demographics are the key to this race. Little does well in the independent-minded parts of the district. The question is whether it will be enough to overcome the built-in Democratic advantage here.”

Look at the last three election cycles for Pallone:

2008: Pallone (D) 67%, McLeod  (R) 32%

2006: Pallone (D) 69%, Bellew (R) 30%

2004: Pallone (D) 67%, Fernandez (R) 31%

If you look at the most recent Monmouth University poll (PDF), you’ll find that Republicans are definitely not very popular in the district.  But also worth noting is that 45% of respondents said they had “no opinion” of Anna Little.  In other words, voters in the district really don’t know much about her.  Voters here feel they don’t really have much of a choice, that it’s just automatic for Pallone to win.  That’s not good for democracy.

The Little campaign is really energized about what they’re doing.  Over the past few months, and few weeks especially, I’ve seen supporters all over the district, lawn signs are all over, even in the bluest of neighborhoods, they’ve been at  local fall festivals, etc.  I overheard one of Little’s campaign workers talk to some attendees at the rally who were obviously undecided, and he mentioned that at recent event where both candidates were present, about 106 Little supporters showed up versus 10 for Pallone.  Take that for what it’s worth.

Turnout will be key to turn this district red, plain and simple.  With a 12 point deficit and two weeks left, the campaign will certainly have its work cut out for it.  It will be difficult, but not impossible. 

Time is of the essence, so if you’re so inclined, throw the campaign a few shekels. 

Anna Little for Congress

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