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Forty is the number

Expanding on Gallup’s numbers on GOP favorability on the generic ballot, I thought this was interesting from Hotline:

Meanwhile, Pres. Obama’s approval rating isn’t helping Dems at all. As of this morning, Pollster.com’s running average shows 47.6% of Americans approve of the job Obama’s doing, while 47% disapprove. Historically, when a WH incumbent’s approval rating is under 50%, his party has lost an average of 41 seats, according to an analysis by the GOP polling firm Public Opinion Strategies (which we first wrote about last year).

That’s a significant number — after all, the GOP needs 40 seats to take back the majority.

Campaigns don’t win themselves, and strategists in both parties know it. But with an advantage like they haven’t enjoyed for years, the GOP is in good position to take back a large number of seats.

Yes, campaigns definitely don’t win themselves, and I never underestimate the GOP’s ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.   And yes, I’m still pessimistic about raising the bar on GOP gains this November.

That being said, it’s still a bit nebulous, but it seems as if the post-healthcare bump is fading for Democrats.  Like I’ve been saying, the Republicans need to frame the narrative–this healthcare legislation was bad for the country both economically and politically.

Republicans should be hammering away at the need to focus on the economy, on job creation, on the jobs that have been lost under a government that’s been controlled by Democrats for almost three years.  That’s the best hand they have.

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