GOP chances for taking over the Senate
Not a slam dunk by any means, but improving. Nate Silver reports:
Republican chances of taking over the Senate have improved again in this week’s forecast. They are now 22 percent — up from 18 percent last week and 15 percent two weeks ago. Republican chances are now approaching the point where they stood prior to the Delaware primary, when they had peaked at 26 percent before Christine O’Donnell’s victory.
[I]t is a set of seven states that are likely to determine Republican chances to control the Senate. These are Nevada, Illinois, West Virginia, Washington, California, Connecticut, and the New York special election. Republicans would need to win four of these seven races to take claim of the Senate.
[T]he Senate will not come easily for Republicans. But, in contrast to previous weeks, the party seems to have multiple pathways toward gaining control of it: one path running through “new” states like West Virginia and Connecticut where the polling has been moving in their favor, and the other through “old” states like Washington and California where the numbers had been running against them, but the momentum could reverse itself.
The Republicans will come up short of winning a majority in the Senate, in my opinion. But I’m generally more pessimistic so we’ll see.