The results are from Gallup’s Oct. 28-31 survey of 1,539 likely voters. It finds 52% to 55% of likely voters preferring the Republican candidate and 40% to 42% for the Democratic candidate on the national generic ballot — depending on turnout assumptions. Gallup’s analysis of several indicators of voter turnout from the weekend poll suggests turnout will be slightly higher than in recent years, at 45%. This would give the Republicans a 55% to 40% lead on the generic ballot, with 5% undecided.
…[T]his year’s 15-point gap in favor of the Republican candidates among likely voters is unprecedented in Gallup polling and could result in the largest Republican margin in House voting in several generations. This means that seat projections have moved into uncharted territory, in which past relationships between the national two-party vote and the number of seats won may not be maintained.
It looks like we’re definitely not in Kansas anymore.
Saw this as it happened live.
Jim Hoft at GWP has video of Presidents George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush throw out the first pitch:
People genuinely love these men. What a great moment.
PPP is out with their last poll for Kentucky:
Rand Paul has expanded his lead in the Kentucky Senate race even further over the last week and is headed for a blowout win. His margin over Jack Conway is 55-40.
Kentucky is obviously a conservative state. Conway’s ability to win was always going to depend on getting a lot of folks who supported John McCain in 2008 to vote Democratic for the Senate this time around. The most amazing finding on this final poll is that Rand Paul is actually picking up more Obama voters (15%) than Conway is McCain voters (9%). That’s the formula for a landslide.
It doesn’t hurt to have an opponent run tasteless and desperation-tainted ads, either.
Stories like this are great news for Republicans 48 hours before the election. Not only are Republicans here in New Jersey more energized to vote, but we’re building a nice grassroots organization:
The GOP has added 18,241 voters to the rolls since the June primary, a 1.7 percent increase, according to figures at the state Division of Elections. The number of Democratic voters has increased by 3,199.
The Democrats still hold a 3-to-2 margin over the Republicans. There are 1.7 million registered Democratic voters, compared with 1.1 million Republicans.
But the state’s 2.4 million unaffiliated voters still dwarf both major parties and usually prove to be the deciding factor in any major election.
Brigid Harrison, a political science professor at Montclair State University, said the GOP statewide and nationwide has the upper hand in an enthusiasm gap between the two major parties.
“Republicans are much more excited about their chances,” Harrison said. “They have the momentum their volunteers are organized and energized.”
Harrison said that Republicans learned much from Gov. Chris Christie’s successful get-out-the-vote effort from last year’s gubernatorial election. Then, the Republicans used social networking efforts on the Internet and used volunteers in suburban neighborhoods to boost totals in GOP strongholds such as Monmouth and Ocean counties.
“Part of this (voter) surge is due to the fact that there is a much more sophisticated Republican organization on the ground in this state,” Harrison said.
These developments should be huge for Anna Little in the 6th congressional district and Jon Runyan in the 3rd:
[Joseph Marbach, provost at LaSalle University] said one indicator of the how things have changed is the relatively close race between Republican challenger Anna Little and Democratic U.S. Rep. Frank Pallone Jr. Pallone is well financed and has been a congressman for more than 20 years, while Little served less than two years as a county freeholder and is now Highlands mayor.
Pallone is up by 7 points, the latest polls show. “Little (winning) would be a real upset, and it already is with it as close as it is,” Marbach said.
Another indicator of the Republican surge is in New Jersey’s 3rd District, where U.S. Rep. John Adler is running neck-and-neck with Republican challenger Jon Runyon, the former Philadelphia Eagles lineman, Marbach said.
Donate your time, money and/or energy to help put Anna Little and Jon Runyan over the top in their districts. There’s still some time.
The big news this week was that Bill Clinton had tried to get the Democrat candidate Kendrick Meek to drop out of the Florida race for US Senate. The idea being that Republican Independent Charlie Crist can save the seat for Democrats.
There’s so much fail there for Democrats (see the Joe Sestak debacle in Pennsylvania), and as Ed Henry reports, there’s more to the Meek story than just that one race:
The real story is how bad the broader electoral map has gotten for Democrats heading into the final weekend of this midterm election: Top Democratic officials privately say they believe they are going to lose the House, but as they survey the country they are getting increasingly worried they will also lose the Senate.
These Democratic officials tell me they’ve reviewed private polling numbers that suggest Sen. Patty Murray of Washington has a razor-thin lead of about two points over Republican Dino Rossi despite all kinds of help from the president and first lady Michelle Obama, among others.
They’re also deeply worried about whether Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada can beat Republican Sharron Angle, so suddenly the “firewall” out West to keep control of the Senate might be more like a crumbling brick wall.
In fact, I asked top Democratic officials if it’s really worth it to try to push Meek out, even though the whole plan has now been exposed and it appears the congressman will not budge. The consensus was yes, it’s worth it simply because holding on to the Senate is the Democrat’s sole chance of keeping some power on Capitol Hill.
If Democrats are worried about Washington state (!) and Patty Murray, what are they thinking about Ohio? Pennsylvania? Colorado?
Democrats are publicly saying that they are confident of minimizing losses heading into November 2nd. If that’s the case, they’re certainly not acting like it.
The Senate race in Alaska is turning out to be a major clusterfark for the GOP:
In a last-ditch effort to aid their Senate nominee Scott McAdams, Democrats purchased airtime Friday in Alaska.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee purchased $165,000 worth of ads that will start airing this weekend, according to Andrew MacLeod, the general sales manager at Anchorage television station KTUU.
The DSCC’s eleventh-hour independent expenditure suggests the committee believes McAdams has a chance to defeat Republican Joe Miller and Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who is running a write-in campaign to retain her seat. McAdams was widely viewed as a long-shot candidate when he filed to challenge Murkowski earlier this year, but the unique dynamics of what became a three-way race have given the Democrat an opening — although it’s unclear yet from recent polling how much of a shot McAdams truly has.
Two polls released this week show the initial front-runner in the general election, Miller, losing ground.
A month ago, I didn’t think anyone in the Republican party could possibly beat Mike Castle as wanker of the year. Lisa Murkowski has done that, and then some.
UPDATE. And just to prove my point even further, Dan Riehl has this bit of Murkowski insanity.
This (PDF) probably explains why President Obama and Vice-President Doofus have been popping up in Delaware over the last few weeks, despite Democrats’ assumptions that the open Senate seat was a slam-dunk:
In the past two weeks, Republican Christine O’Donnell has narrowed Democrat Chris Coons’ lead in Delaware’s U.S. Senate race from 19 points to 10 points. The latest Monmouth University Poll finds Coons has the support of 51% of likely voters to 41% for O’Donnell. Two weeks ago, this race stood at 57% to 38%.
O’Donnell has actually pulled into a 49% to 43% lead in the southern part of the state (i.e. Kent and Sussex counties). Two weeks ago, this region of the state was divided at 47% for O’Donnell and 46% for Coons. The Democrat continues to hold a sizable advantage in New Castle County, but the current 56% to 36% margin is down from the 63% to 33% edge he held earlier this month.
O’Donnell has also made gains among independent voters, now leading Coons 47% to 42% among this voting bloc. Two weeks ago, she trailed in the independent vote by 51% to 41%. “While Coons still has the advantage, it has to be uncomfortable knowing that O’Donnell was able to shave 9 points off his lead in just two weeks.
The interesting thing is that while her vote total has risen, the majority of Delaware voters still say she is unqualified for the post,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.
The swing in independent voters is huge, as this reflects similar movements throughout the country in races that are going from blue to red.
If you look at the cross-tabs, respondents gave a 49% disapproval rating to President Obama; independents gave him a 56% disapproval rating.
The Obama administration isn’t taking this race lightly:
“If you keep Connecticut and Delaware, it makes it very hard for the Republicans to get there,” one senior administration official said. “It is really an effort to leave no stone unturned.”
Although Delaware appears well in hand for Democratic nominee Chris Coons, he will get a further boost Saturday when Obama visits Philadelphia, where media coverage extends to nearby Delaware.
RCP still gives a 15 point edge to Coons, and time is running out for O’Donnell, so the GOTV efforts need to be massive.
But there’s something going on in Delaware and it’s making Democrats very uneasy. Pulling this off would be huge for Republicans in an already big year, all while the Left continues with an unrelenting barrage of vitriol and smears against Republican women.
Knocking a Democrat off from Joe Biden’s old seat would be icing on the cake.